How Tariffs Are Affecting Freight Costs in 2026
Tariffs on imported goods are reshaping freight lanes, carrier capacity, and shipping costs across the US. Here's what's changed and how to manage it.
If your freight costs have felt less predictable lately, you're not imagining it. The tariff environment in 2026 has introduced a layer of uncertainty into freight markets that didn't exist a few years ago — and for businesses that import goods, manufacture domestically, or distribute nationally, the effects show up in ways that aren't always obvious.
Here's what's actually happening and what you can do about it.
How Tariffs Ripple Into Freight Markets
Most shippers think of tariffs as a cost on the imported goods themselves — not a freight problem. But tariffs change behavior in ways that affect capacity, lanes, and rates across the entire transportation network.
When tariffs go up on Chinese goods, for example, importers rush to front-load inventory before rates take effect. That surge in import volume floods West Coast ports, tightens drayage capacity, and drives up rates on lanes out of Los Angeles and Long Beach — even for domestic shippers who have nothing to do with the imports.
On the other side, when tariffs cause businesses to pull back on imports or shift sourcing, freight volumes on certain lanes drop, carriers reposition equipment, and the capacity picture on domestic lanes changes again.
The net result is more volatility. Rates that were stable move. Capacity that was easy to find tightens. And the businesses that get hurt most are the ones who assumed their freight costs would stay predictable.
What's Changed in 2026
A few specific shifts are worth noting for domestic shippers:
Nearshoring is redistributing freight volume. More manufacturing is moving to Mexico as companies reduce China exposure. That's increasing cross-border freight volume on US-Mexico lanes — particularly through Laredo and El Paso — and tightening southbound capacity on routes through Texas. If you're shipping into or out of the South or Southwest, this affects your available capacity and rates.
Import surges are still happening. Even with elevated tariffs, shippers periodically pull inventory forward when they expect rate changes — which creates temporary capacity crunches at ports and on outbound lanes. These surges aren't predictable from the outside, but your freight broker should be watching for them.
Domestic lanes are getting more competitive. Some importers who previously shipped from overseas are sourcing domestically instead, which creates new freight volume on lanes that didn't have it before. In some cases that's helpful; in others it adds competition for the same capacity.
What You Can Do About It
You can't control tariff policy, but you can make decisions that reduce your exposure to the volatility it creates.
Lock in rates on high-volume lanes. If you ship the same origin-to-destination lane regularly, ask about contract pricing. Spot rates swing more than contract rates during volatile periods. Locking in volume commitments on your core lanes removes some of the uncertainty.
Build more lead time into your shipping schedule. When the freight market gets tight, shippers who book 48–72 hours out get better rates and more carrier options than shippers who call the same day. It sounds simple, but most businesses don't do it consistently.
Diversify your carrier mix. If you're relying on one carrier or one booking channel, you're more exposed to capacity problems. A freight broker with relationships across 45,000+ carriers can find alternatives when your primary carrier is tight or unavailable.
Work with a 3PL to get ahead of inventory positioning. If import costs are going up, some businesses benefit from repositioning inventory to warehouses closer to their customers before rates climb further. A third-party logistics partner can help you think through the logistics math on that decision.
Don't let freight be an afterthought. In a stable market, freight is easy to treat as a commodity — pick the cheapest quote and move on. In a volatile market, the businesses that manage freight proactively pay less than the businesses that react. That means knowing your freight class, your accessorials, your volume commitments, and having a broker who's watching the market on your behalf.
The Bigger Picture
Tariff volatility isn't going away in the near term. The political and economic factors driving it are durable, which means the freight market will continue to have more surprises than it did five years ago.
The good news is that the fundamentals of managing freight costs well haven't changed. Know your freight accurately. Book ahead when you can. Work with partners who have the carrier relationships and market visibility to help you navigate. And don't treat freight as a fixed cost — it's a variable that smart shippers manage actively.
If you want a second set of eyes on your freight lanes and current rates, reach out to our team. We're watching the market daily and can tell you whether what you're paying makes sense.